Abstract: To explore the potential distribution and future developing trend of five needle pine blister rust disease （FNPBR） in China, and to provide scientific basis for its prevention and control. This study collected 94 geographic distribution records of FNPBR in China, combined with 73 environmental factor indicators, and used the MaxEnt model to predict the current suitable habitats of the disease, the ROC curve analysis and environmental factor contribution rates were evaluated to identify dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution, maps of suitable habitats and centroid migration trajectories under four future climate scenarios were generated. The results showed that under the current climate scenario, FNPBR is severely prevalent in southwestern China （Hengduan Mountains to Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, including Sichuan and Yunnan）, the Qinba Mountains, and northeastern regions （from Xiao Hinggan Mountains to Changbai Mountains）, with gradual spread to adjacent regions; The precipitation in November shows the highest contribution rate among climatic factors, with an optimal range of 11.0~30.0 mm. Under the four future climate scenarios, the area of high suitability for FNPBR will increase by 96.83% under the SSP585 （2081—2100） scenario, reaching 60.33×10⁴ km². Habitat expansion correlates positively with climatic stress （SSP585 > SSP370 > SSP245 >SSP126）; Centroid migration trajectories predominantly shift toward regions with optimized hydrothermal conditions （high-latitude and humid zones or high-altitude and cool temperate areas）. Climate change may reshape the pathogen’s ecological niche boundaries, increasing its risk of spreading to primeval forests. Enhanced quarantine and control measures are urgently needed in the Hengduan Mountains, Qinba Mountains, and Xiaoxing’anling to Changbai Mountains.